The Way I See It!

2010 Hurricane Predictions

Posted by Randy Hollenbeck on July 24, 2010

America, Climate Change, Weather, Science, Hurricanes

‘Active’ 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (Update1)

May 25 (Bloomberg) -- The 2010 hurricane season in the Atlantic will be “active” and produce 16 tropical storms, including eight hurricanes, four of them intense, Tropical Storm Risk said today.

There’s a 74 percent chance that more storms than normal will hit the continental U.S., the closely watched U.K. forecaster said in a report issued today.

“At present, every main indicator points to hurricane activity being well-above norm in 2010,” the report said.

The forecast joins a growing number of predictions that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, which starts June 1, will be among the most-active on record.  Academic and commercial forecasters including Colorado State University are calling for the storm total to range from 14 to 18 named storms by the time the season ends Dec. 1.

In an average year, 11 systems develop into named storms with winds of at least 39 mph (62 kph), with six of them reaching the 74-mph threshold for hurricanes and two growing into major storms with winds of 111 mph or more, according to the National Hurricane Center.  The 1950 to 2009 average is 10 storms, six hurricanes and three major systems.

Prediction for Landfall

At least two hurricanes and three tropical storm-strength systems are expected to hit the U.S., according to the British forecaster, which is affiliated with University College London and is co-sponsored by the insurers Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group Plc and Crawford & Co.

Last year, the number of storms was held to a 12-year low as only nine formed and none made landfall at hurricane strength in the U.S.  An El Nino, or warming in the Pacific Ocean, is credited in part with keeping the number lower than average.

El Nino creates high-altitude winds over the Atlantic that tear storms apart before they can form.

The prediction for above-normal storm formation this season “is expected to be even higher if La Nina develops during the second half of the 2010,” Tropical Storm Risk said.  “Even now there is a high likelihood” that this year’s hurricane activity “will be in the top third of years historically.”

The current El Nino cycle is waning and the Pacific will return to normal temperatures by June, according to a U.S. Climate Prediction Center update issued yesterday.  Some models suggest a La Nina, or cooling of the Pacific, may develop later this year, the center said.

Source: Businessweek

NOAA does NOT make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions

NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions.  Hurricane landfalls are largely determined by the weather patterns in place as the hurricane approaches, which are only predictable when the storm is within several days of making landfall.

Source: NOAA